Climate Haven Cities
Ranked on the heat, nights, water, and fire you're signing up for in 2045 — not on this week's forecast.
These numbers will look low against the summer you remember, and that's the point. "Days ≥35°C now" is an average across 2015–2024 (ERA5 reanalysis, measured at each city's coordinates) — not the worst year. Paris hit 40°C recently and still averages 1.7 days a year over 35°C, because one blistering week is one blistering week. The 2045 column is a five-model CMIP6 mean, and averaging models flattens the extremes further. So read this as chronic exposure — how hot a normal year gets — not as a forecast of the next record. Heat and tropical nights are measured per city; water stress, wildfire risk, and adaptation readiness are national figures, marked on every card.
Dublin
IrelandDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Cork
IrelandDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Oslo
NorwayDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Dunedin
New ZealandDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Edinburgh
United KingdomDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Copenhagen
DenmarkDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Manchester
United KingdomDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Tallinn
EstoniaDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Helsinki
FinlandDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
The Hague
NetherlandsDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Gothenburg
SwedenDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Brighton
United KingdomDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Rotterdam
NetherlandsDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Malmo
SwedenDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Stockholm
SwedenDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Bern
SwitzerlandDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
London
United KingdomDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Amsterdam
NetherlandsDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Medellin
ColombiaBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045.
Innsbruck
AustriaBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045.
Lausanne
SwitzerlandBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045.
Munich
GermanyDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Lucerne
SwitzerlandBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045. Up from 0.0 today.
Zurich
SwitzerlandBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045. Up from 0.0 today.
Salzburg
AustriaBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045. Up from 0.1 today.
Hamburg
GermanyBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045. Up from 0.3 today.
Geneva
SwitzerlandPicks up to ~1 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Saint Petersburg
RussiaBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045.
Mexico City
MexicoDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Vancouver
CanadaPicks up to ~1 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.1 today.
Basel
SwitzerlandPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.1 today.
Graz
AustriaPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.0 today.
Florianopolis
BrazilBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Berlin
GermanyPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.3 today.
Cologne
GermanyPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.9 today.
San Jose
Costa RicaBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Leipzig
GermanyPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Stuttgart
GermanyPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.6 today.
San Francisco
United StatesDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Moscow
RussiaPicks up to ~1 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.0 today.
Lugano
SwitzerlandPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.3 today.
Frankfurt
GermanyPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 2.3 today.
Warsaw
PolandPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.0 today.
Montreal
CanadaPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.0 today.
Boquete
PanamaBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Atenas
Costa RicaBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Krakow
PolandPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.0 today.
Prague
Czech RepublicPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.2 today.
Tenerife
SpainDoesn't break 35°C now, still won't in 2045, and the nights stay properly cold.
Bali
IndonesiaBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Ljubljana
SloveniaPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.9 today.
Tokyo
JapanPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Honolulu
United StatesBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Seattle
United StatesPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.2 today.
Toronto
CanadaPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.0 today.
Paris
FrancePicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.7 today.
Singapore
SingaporeBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Phuket
ThailandBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Batumi
GeorgiaPicks up to ~1 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.5 today.
Funchal
PortugalBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Cancun
MexicoBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Bilbao
SpainBarely breaks 35°C now and still won't in 2045.
Nice
FrancePicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.1 today.
Playa del Carmen
MexicoBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Marseille
FrancePicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.0 today.
Tulum
MexicoBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here.
Vienna
AustriaPicks up to ~7 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.0 today.
Hong Kong
Hong KongPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.0 today. And 246 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Miami
United StatesPicks up to ~1 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.2 today. And 317 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Gold Coast
AustraliaBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here. Up from 0.3 today.
Seoul
South KoreaPicks up to ~4 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.9 today.
Panama City
PanamaBarely breaks 35°C in the daytime — the nights are the problem here. Up from 0.2 today.
San Miguel de Allende
MexicoPicks up to ~5 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.2 today.
Buenos Aires
ArgentinaPicks up to ~4 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.7 today.
Lyon
FrancePicks up to ~8 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 5.2 today.
Almaty
KazakhstanPicks up to ~4 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Faro
PortugalPicks up to ~1 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Lagos
PortugalPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Taipei
TaiwanPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. And 231 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Sydney
AustraliaPicks up to ~4 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Cape Town
South AfricaPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.2 today.
Barcelona
SpainPicks up to ~2 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.6 today.
Montpellier
FranceAbout 10 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 5.2 today.
Porto
PortugalPicks up to ~5 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.7 today.
Bratislava
SlovakiaPicks up to ~9 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.1 today.
Istanbul
TurkeyPicks up to ~3 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.9 today.
New York
United StatesPicks up to ~7 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.5 today.
Shanghai
ChinaPicks up to ~5 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Lisbon
PortugalPicks up to ~6 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 3.0 today.
Milan
ItalyAbout 11 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 3.0 today.
Budapest
HungaryAbout 11 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 1.9 today.
Ajijic
MexicoPicks up to ~10 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 3.2 today.
Chicago
United StatesAbout 12 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 0.9 today.
Goa
IndiaPicks up to ~6 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.0 today.
Shenzhen
ChinaPicks up to ~7 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 0.9 today. And 238 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Florence
ItalyAbout 19 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 14.0 today.
Malaga
SpainPicks up to ~8 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying.
Tbilisi
GeorgiaAbout 15 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 12.5 today.
Rome
ItalyAbout 20 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 17.5 today.
Kuala Lumpur
MalaysiaPicks up to ~9 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 1.2 today. And 365 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Yerevan
ArmeniaAbout 18 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave.
Rio de Janeiro
BrazilAbout 25 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 9.4 today. And 258 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Split
CroatiaAbout 15 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 5.7 today.
Bologna
ItalyAbout 27 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 9.3 today.
Valencia
SpainAbout 13 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 3.7 today.
Haifa
IsraelPicks up to ~8 days over 35°C a year by 2045 — noticeable, not disqualifying. Up from 2.0 today. And 167 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Belgrade
SerbiaAbout 19 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 5.2 today.
Puerto Vallarta
MexicoAbout 20 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 0.2 today. And 291 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Kansas City
United StatesRoughly 44 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 9.0 today.
Los Angeles
United StatesRoughly 48 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 17.6 today.
Perth
AustraliaAbout 39 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 15.8 today.
Tel Aviv
IsraelAbout 14 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 4.6 today. And 158 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Beijing
ChinaAbout 30 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 16.3 today.
Madrid
SpainAbout 38 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 31.1 today.
Athens
GreeceAbout 39 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 17.9 today.
Jerusalem
IsraelAbout 33 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 13.7 today.
Las Vegas
United StatesRoughly 119 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 109.0 today.
Phoenix
United StatesRoughly 161 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 136.2 today. And 153 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Tucson
United StatesRoughly 129 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 105.8 today.
Da Nang
VietnamAbout 22 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. And 345 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Tamarindo
Costa RicaAbout 33 days over 35°C a year by 2045. That's a season, not a heatwave. Up from 23.2 today. And 365 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Marrakech
MoroccoRoughly 75 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat.
Seville
SpainRoughly 72 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 64.1 today.
Merida
MexicoRoughly 144 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 78.7 today. And 330 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Tashkent
UzbekistanRoughly 69 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 56.1 today.
Bangalore
IndiaRoughly 80 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 29.1 today. And 265 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Dubai
United Arab EmiratesRoughly 206 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 190.6 today. And 233 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Bangkok
ThailandRoughly 73 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 32.1 today. And 347 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Chiang Mai
ThailandRoughly 73 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 45.3 today. And 278 nights a year that never drop below 20°C — the sleep tax.
Cairo
EgyptRoughly 127 days over 35°C a year by 2045. Plan your life around a thermostat. Up from 114.8 today.
How we score cities
45% projected days above 35°C in 2045, 15% projected tropical nights (never dropping below 20°C), 15% baseline water stress, 15% wildfire risk, 10% national adaptation readiness (ND-GAIN). Heat sits on a log curve, not a straight line — the raw spread runs from 0 days to 205, and a linear scale would flatten every temperate city into one indistinguishable blob. The 2045 figures are a five-model CMIP6 HighResMIP mean over 2040–2050 under roughly RCP8.5 — the high-emissions pathway, not a best case. Days and nights are measured at the city; water stress, wildfire, and adaptation readiness are national figures and are labelled as such on every card. Air-conditioning ownership is shown but deliberately not scored: cold countries have almost none and don't need it, so scoring it would punish exactly the cities that top this list.
Data: Open-Meteo (CMIP6 HighResMIP + ERA5 archive) · WRI Aqueduct 4.0 · Copernicus EFFIS/GWIS · ND-GAIN · Odyssee-MURE
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best climate haven city in 2026?▾
Dublin (Ireland) tops the list with a haven score of 97/100 — a projected 0 days a year above 35°C in 2045, against 0 today. Cool, wet, and not on fire.
Top 5 climate haven cities?▾
#1 Dublin (97/100), #2 Cork (96/100), #3 Oslo (96/100), #4 Dunedin (96/100), #5 Edinburgh (95/100). Scored on projected 2045 heat and tropical nights, water stress, wildfire risk, and national adaptation readiness.
What does the 2045 projection actually assume?▾
A five-model CMIP6 HighResMIP mean averaged over 2040–2050, under roughly RCP8.5 — the high-emissions pathway. That is deliberately not the optimistic scenario. If the world decarbonises faster than it currently is, these numbers are too hot. If you're picking a city to spend the next twenty years in, planning against the pessimistic case is the cheaper mistake.
Which cities get hit hardest?▾
Cairo (127 days ≥35°C by 2045), Dubai (206 days ≥35°C by 2045), Bangkok (73 days ≥35°C by 2045), Chiang Mai (73 days ≥35°C by 2045), Bangalore (80 days ≥35°C by 2045). All of them are liveable today and several are lovely. The question isn't whether you'd enjoy a year there — it's whether you'd sign a thirty-year mortgage.
Why isn't air conditioning part of the score?▾
Because it would reward the wrong thing. A/C ownership is a national figure, and the countries at the top of this list have almost none — Ireland and Norway don't air-condition houses because they've never needed to. Scoring it would penalise exactly the cities that are coolest. We show it as a chip on hot cities instead, where the gap between the heat coming and the homes built for it is the actual story.
Is this a city-level or country-level ranking?▾
Both, and every card says which is which. Days above 35°C and tropical nights are modelled at the city's own coordinates. Water stress (WRI Aqueduct), wildfire risk (Copernicus EFFIS/GWIS), and adaptation readiness (ND-GAIN) are only published nationally, so cities inherit their country's figure. A coastal city in a water-stressed country may be fine; the national number can't tell you that.
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